Ethiopia on the Fence as Somaliland Recognition Gains Momentum
According to Ethiopian diplomatic sources, the guiding principle remains clear: any decision must prioritize Ethiopia’s interests rather than align with external power blocs. Read below
Israel’s recent decision to recognize Somaliland as an independent state has sent shockwaves across the Middle East and the already fragile Horn of Africa. All eyes are now on Addis Ababa, given Ethiopia’s long-standing strategic interest in an independent Somaliland-primarily as a pathway to secure an alternative trade route and revive its ambition for a naval presence in the Red Sea.
In January 2024, Ethiopia attempted to recognize Somaliland in exchange for access to a naval base. The move triggered intense diplomatic backlash, particularly from Somalia, and the Memorandum of Understanding was shelved after Turkey mediated between Addis Ababa and Mogadishu. However, the agreement was never officially declared dead.
Ethiopia’s early move appeared aimed at legitimizing Somaliland’s statehood aspirations and encouraging other countries to follow suit. Now, Israel has become the first nation to break the ice. In Washington, there is also growing bipartisan interest in recognizing Somaliland-an outcome many observers believe is a matter of time.
Despite this shifting landscape, Ethiopia has yet to declare an official position. Addis Ababa prefers strategic silence: it seeks to avoid provoking Somalia and inflaming regional hostilities, while at the same time it is unwilling to foreclose the January 2024 MOU, which remains a strategically significant economic and security opportunity.
Close sources within the Ethiopian government suggest that Addis Ababa is adopting a “wait-and-see” approach while prioritizing other security imperatives. Ethiopia is currently focused on reasserting access to Eritrea’s Assab port, countering what it perceives as Egypt-Eritrea pressure via armed groups, and navigating its place in an increasingly competitive Red Sea geopolitical arena.
Israel’s arrival in Somaliland follows Egypt’s growing power projection toward the southern Red Sea-an escalation that reflects long-standing mistrust between Cairo and Tel Aviv. Ethiopia has an interest in containing Egypt’s influence but must do so without provoking Djibouti, Somalia, or Turkey.
Meanwhile, Ethiopia’s close ally, the UAE, is likely reassessing its strategic posture in the region. Abu Dhabi may move to consolidate its own sphere of influence, building on its longstanding relationship with Somaliland, where DP World operates the Port of Berbera.
The Horn of Africa has undeniably become a battleground for emerging Middle Eastern powers, and Ethiopia is walking a geopolitical tightrope as it weighs its next move. According to Ethiopian diplomatic sources, the guiding principle remains clear: any decision must prioritize Ethiopia’s economic and security interests rather than align with external power blocs. In the short term, Ethiopia aims to position itself as an influential actor in the Red Sea-not as a proxy serving the interests of others, but as a regional power capable of defending its own.
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