Ethiopia’s Hegemonic Ambition — Once Again
Ethiopia’s broader hegemonic ambition stems from deep-rooted geopolitical vulnerabilities, economic insecurities, and a long-standing desire to assert regional dominance. Read below
In 2019, Ethiopia surprised the international community by announcing its ambition to establish a naval force in the Red Sea—despite being a landlocked country. At the time, many diplomats and analysts dismissed it as a political bluff aimed at bolstering domestic support. However, Ethiopia continued to press its case and, by January 2024, signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland, the breakaway region of Somalia.
The MoU sent shockwaves across the Horn of Africa, triggering anger and anxiety. Somalia, backed by Egypt and Eritrea, formed a joint command to counter Ethiopia’s plan, viewing it as a direct threat to regional sovereignty and balance.
Following the Ankara Agreement, Ethiopia quietly shelved its deal with Somaliland and pivoted toward normalizing relations with Somalia. Despite this diplomatic reset, Ethiopia remains committed to securing Red Sea access, and negotiations with Somalia are ongoing.
More Than Commerce: Strategic Ambitions
Ethiopia's pursuit of sea access is not merely for commercial purposes. A foreign policy internal document released in mid-2024 by a government-affiliated think tank outlines a broader vision for Ethiopia's future. The document identifies the Nile River and the Red Sea as central pillars of Ethiopia's "renaissance." Though lacking in detail, it clearly links Ethiopia's historical struggles and internal conflicts to the influence of foreign adversaries—suggesting that naval power in the Red Sea is essential for neutralizing these threats.
The Nile and the GERD: A Geopolitical Gamechanger
On the Nile front, Ethiopia has already built the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile, now over 90% complete. GERD is undeniably a landmark achievement for domestic electricity production and regional hydropolitics. Notably, its construction began during the Arab Spring—a period of regional chaos that left Cairo politically vulnerable. Ethiopia seized the opportunity, gaining significant leverage over Egypt, its historical rival.
Naval Power and Hegemonic Aspirations
The push for sea access and naval capabilities is part of Ethiopia’s broader hegemonic strategy—to deter rivals and project power beyond its borders. This ambition stems from deep-rooted geopolitical vulnerabilities, economic insecurities, and a long-standing desire to assert regional dominance.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is not the first leader to follow this path. Emperor Haile Selassie and his predecessors sought to modernize Ethiopia and position it as a global player. Decades later, Meles Zenawi came to power at 34 and initiated the GERD project, realizing part of Haile Selassie’s vision. GERD, arguably the most geopolitically consequential project in modern Ethiopian history, reshaped regional power dynamics.
Abiy, facing widespread internal unrest and economic strain, is following a familiar trajectory. His quest for Red Sea access represents a strategic continuation of Ethiopia’s hegemonic aspiration.
The Internal Contradiction
However, there’s a stark contradiction in this vision. For over 150 years, Ethiopian regimes have struggled with internal opposition and civil unrest. None have achieved lasting legitimacy through inclusive governance. Their grand strategies have always depended on internal stability—a condition consistently undermined by conflict.
Today, Abiy’s ability to realize his Red Sea ambition is similarly constrained. With multiple armed movements rising within the country, the pursuit of external power projection risks becoming unwarranted, dangerous, and ultimately unsustainable.