Ethiopia’s Possible Red Sea Naval Base: The Complex Path Through Puntland
Geographically, apart from Somaliland, the only Somali territory with access to the Red Sea shoreline is Puntland, an autonomous federal state of Somalia. Read below
For nearly a year, Ethiopia has faced significant diplomatic pressure and military confrontation with Somalia and its allies over a controversial Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed with Somaliland, Somalia's breakaway region.
The United States and the European Union have urged Ethiopian officials to refrain from implementing the MoU, which would allow Ethiopia to establish a naval base on the Red Sea and effectively recognize Somaliland’s independence. U.S. officials, including Pentagon strategists, expressed concerns to Ethiopian authorities, warning that the MoU could potentially undermine progress in the fight against Al-Shabaab extremists in the region.
Ethiopia’s key economic partners, Turkey and China, have also opposed the MoU due to their own national and regional interests. In response, Somalia formed a military alliance with Eritrea and Egypt, downgraded its diplomatic ties with Ethiopia, and withdrew its consent for Ethiopian peacekeeping troops to participate in the African Union mission after nearly two decades.
The January 2024 MoU between Ethiopia and Somaliland now appears to be on hold or scrapped altogether. Ethiopia’s ambition for Red Sea access has shifted to a different path.
Under the Ankara Agreement, brokered by Turkey, Ethiopia may gain Red Sea access through Somali territory. As part of the agreement, Somalia has reportedly agreed to end hostilities and recognize Ethiopian troops as partners. However, Ethiopia’s clear objective remains the establishment of a naval base on the Red Sea, not merely gaining coastal access.
Geographically, apart from Somaliland, the only Somali territory with access to the Red Sea shoreline is Puntland, an autonomous federal state of Somalia. Any upcoming negotiations between Somalia and Ethiopia will likely face complications unless Puntland is included in the discussions. As a sovereign nation, Somalia may resist Puntland’s involvement in such critical foreign relations and security matters. Puntland, in turn, could use the negotiations as leverage to further its aspirations for greater autonomy or independence.
While Puntland has historically sought to remain part of a federal Somalia, tensions have grown. In 2024, Puntland declared itself functionally independent amid disputes over constitutional changes in Somalia, although it stopped short of seeking international recognition as a separate state.
Previously, Ethiopia held brief talks with Puntland about using its ports for commercial purposes, but no significant progress was reported.
By signing the controversial MoU with Somaliland, Ethiopia exerted pressure on Somalia to accommodate its demands for Red Sea access. The recent Ankara Agreement further legitimized Ethiopia’s aspirations for sea access both regionally and globally. Ethiopia has also been unable to secure access to Eritrean ports, with no official explanation for Asmara’s refusal.
Although the Ankara declaration is a setback for Somaliland, it does not mark the end of its strategic partnership with Ethiopia. Somaliland remains a crucial diplomatic card for Ethiopia as it shapes future relationships and advances its business and security interests with Somalia. Despite the intense diplomatic disputes of the past year, Somaliland has gained significant international attention. Speculation that the new U.S. administration may recognize Somaliland’s independence could be a game-changer for the Horn of Africa.
The planned Ethiopia-Somalia negotiations are also surrounded by regional and global uncertainties.
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