MEMO: Abiy Ahmed Moves to Restore Reputation Amidst Challenges

Addis Ababa, ETHIOPIA

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s administration turned six this month. In 2018, the nation celebrated Abiy’s ascendance to power with great hopes for peace and prosperity. He was seen as a unifier, not only in Ethiopia, but also across the Horn of Africa. As if to prove a point, Abiy soon traveled to Asmara and ended two decades of hostility between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The rapprochement earned him the coveted Nobel Peace prize in 2019. The honeymoon was, however, short-lived as Ethiopia soon descended into wars and a political quagmire.

In the past weeks alone, Abiy has spent a significant proportion of his time meeting various groups from across Ethiopia. He held discussions with the representatives of the various ethnic groups, the leaders of Ethiopian Orthodox Church, and the Muslim and protestant communities. The Prime Minister also had a lengthy meeting with the business community, women’s representatives and with the opposition political parties’ representatives. He spent hours with each groups to listen their concerns, the culmination of which was the publication by the state affiliated media outlets of a carefully edited version of the deliberations.

Later over the past week, the ruling Prosperity Party mobilized its supporters and the members of the civil service for choreographed rallies in Addis and regional towns. The Prosperity Party had over 16 million members in 2023, a figure that has been on the rise.

The intention of both the public discussions and rallies were not hard to guess. The popularity of the Prime Minister and his party have been on a decline. Several parts of the largest Oromia region remain insecure with the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) or criminal groups wreaking havoc.  Amhara, another expansive federal region, is engulfed in conflict  and remains under a military command rule.

Equally troubling is Ethiopia’s ailing economy, characterized by the ever-rising inflation that has further diminished the Abiy administration’s popularity. The international donors are on April 16, 2024, scheduled to raise additional $1 billion in Geneva to feed and shelter 21 million desperate Ethiopians.

Abiy is not showing any signs of changing his course. He equally does not seem enthusiastic about the proposals from western donors or political groups to ease the crisis and find an amicable solution to Ethiopia’s   problems. During the discussions, the Amhara regional representatives, a majority of them hand-picked, pleaded with the PM to negotiate with the Fano militia groups. The business community members also insisted on a negotiated settlement with all the armed groups to save the economy.

Some opposition political party members have challenged Abiy on his ongoing multi billions-dollars construction projects and the absence of supervision on the spending, the relevance of the projects and the mysterious source of the funding.

Some 13 more radical opposition political parties, including the  Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and Oromo Federalist Congress, declined the PM’s invitation, citing the government’s “lack of seriousness and willingness” to listen to their concerns in the past.

Of course, Ethiopian government has been negotiating with one of the main armed groups, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) in Tanzania. Two round of talks collapsed after the rebels proposed a formation of brand new government, which was tantamount to undermining the legitimacy of the constitutionally elected Abiy.

Two years’ bloody war between TPLF and the Ethiopian Federal government was ended through Pretoria Peace Agreement, and massive international diplomatic pressure.

In the Ethiopian multiparty political history, the line between the ruling party and government has always been blurred, and the incumbent never backs down on either policy or actions. The Ethiopian People Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), the PM’s previous coalition, only considered a slight shift after its election loss in 2005. At the time, EPRDF tuned its development policy towards the urban centers, but intensified its crackdown on the media and civil society, as the ruling party expanded its membership recruitment to win over more support from the urban poor.

The huge political and security challenges facing Abiy’s Prosperity Party pose a real danger to the integrity of Ethiopia’s sovereignty. The PM and his party now have their hopes on the Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission (ENDC) dealing with the crises. However, ENDC is in its initial stages, and the entire process may take years to yield anything substantial. Abiy’s opponents have little faith ENDC.

For now, the Prime minister considers a tight grip on power as the most viable option.