MEMO: Abiy Threatens War if Tigray Hardliners Grab Power
With internal divisions deepening among the senior leadership and public support waning, the once-powerful TPLF is now fighting for survival and relevance. More below
The Tigray interim regional administration, led by President Getachew Reda, was approved by the Ethiopian Federal Government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed as part of the 2022 Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA). Prime Minister Abiy has significant interests in the region’s future and is determined to prevent hardliners from gaining power.
Getachew Reda’s leadership has recently faced intense pressure from the hardliners of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) who have accused him of compromising the region’s strategic interests by signing the Agreement and being manipulated by the Federal Government. There is also considerable blame-shifting regarding the high cost of the war.
The TPLF, a five-decade-old party, has been a source of pride and security for ethnic Tigrayans. For nearly three decades, the TPLF within the former ruling coalition the Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) was the dominant political force in Ethiopia. However, it was sidelined from power in 2018, and later engaged in a two-year bloody war (2020-2022) with the Federal Government. With internal divisions deepening among the senior leadership and public support waning, the once-powerful party is now fighting for survival and relevance.
Two dominant factions have recently emerged within the TPLF amid preparations for a controversial post-war General Congress. One faction, led by party chief and former regional president Debretsion Gebremichael, pushes for greater regional autonomy and accuses the current interim regional leadership of compromising Tigray's aspirations. The second faction is led by the interim administration's president Getachew, who is seen as a reformer attempting to reintegrate Tigray into the national politics.
Debretsion and his veteran backers control the party's vast network and aim to unseat Getachew. Despite the TPLF not having regained its pre-war legal status, Debretsion and his allies want to hold a party congress. The TPLF was designated a terrorist group by the Federal Parliament during the 2020-2022 war, which was later removed after the Pretoria Agreement. But the saga over its revoked legal status still remains unresolved as TPLF insists on the unconditional reinstatement of its pre-war status rather than re-registering with the Ethiopian National Election Board as per the law.
The plan by the TPLF hardliners to hold a party congress without regaining legal status has provoked a hostile reaction from the Federal Government. Abiy has recently threatened another round of war if the TPLF continues with its congress without re-registering. Legally, the congress has the authority to decide the fate of Getachew Reda's leadership.
Getachew warns that the TPLF hardliners are conspiring to seize power and risk plunging the region into another round of war.
Getachew, who finds himself vulnerable to the TPLF hardliners, may seek political and security backing from Abiy, who has a vested interest in preventing the rise of the TPLF hardliners.
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