MEMO: Asmara Tripartite Alliance Forces Ethiopia to Draw Mitigation Plan
The scope of Ethiopia's response could vary, but it is not out of the question that Ethiopia may eventually declare Eritrea an enemy state.
Ten months after Ethiopia signed a controversial Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland to secure access to the Red Sea, regional tensions have significantly escalated. A recent summit in Asmara brought together the leaders of Eritrea, Somalia, and Egypt, along with their intelligence and military heads, to discuss strategies to thwart Ethiopia's Red Sea access plans. This tripartite gathering, which formed a coordination committee, indicates a concerted effort by these countries to prevent Ethiopia from establishing a foothold on the Red Sea.
Although Ethiopia has not formally responded to this summit, sources close to government indicate that Addis Ababa is closely monitoring the situation. Ethiopian leadership has reportedly taken time to assess the geopolitical landscape and is preparing for various scenarios based on available intelligence.
Tensions have further escalated with reports of Egypt delivering arms shipments to Somalia ahead of Ethiopia's likely withdrawal from the AU peacekeeping mission in Somalia by December 2024. This development raises concerns about Somalia's reliance on foreign military support, as the Somali government struggles to defend itself against both Ethiopian influence and Al-Shabaab militants. Somalia’s alignment with Egypt and Eritrea, albeit for different strategic reasons, complicates the regional security situation.
Egypt's hostility toward Ethiopia is longstanding, rooted in disputes over the Nile River and Ethiopia's construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Egypt has used various methods, both covert and overt, to limit Ethiopia's control over the Nile. Its involvement in the recent summit reinforces its objective to undermining Ethiopia's regional influence and ambition to foot in the Red Sea .
Eritrea’s motivations are more economic and political. Since the early 1990s, Eritrea has made multiple attempts to engage with Ethiopia’s economy, but these efforts have largely been rebuffed. In recent years, tensions between Asmara and Addis Ababa have worsened. Although Eritrea was once a war ally of Ethiopia during the conflict with Tigray rebels, relations have soured since the Pretoria Peace Agreement of November 2022. Ethiopia’s crackdown on Eritrean underground business activities in Ethiopia has further strained ties. This was exacerbated when Eritrea suspended Ethiopian Airlines flights to Asmara, citing alleged service quality issues.
The tripartite summit in Asmara, where Eritrea hosted Ethiopia’s adversaries, has made it clear that Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea are developing a coordinated strategy. While it may serve as a scare tactic more than a declaration of actual conflict, Eritrea’s willingness to host and participate in these discussions likely provokes Ethiopia into crafting a mitigation plan. The scope of Ethiopia's response could vary, but it is not out of the question that Ethiopia may eventually declare Eritrea an enemy state.
The summit in Asmara has escalated tensions in an already volatile region. The emerging alliance between Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea is a clear sign of growing pressure on Ethiopia’s geopolitical ambitions, particularly in securing access to the Red Sea. As Ethiopia prepares its mitigation plan, the coming months will be crucial in determining whether these tensions evolve into open conflict or remain a strategic chess game between the region's key players.
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