MEMO: Fracture Among Amhara Fano Over Unified Leadership
After months of squabbles, Amhara rebels, also known as Fano, fighting against Ethiopian government troops have split into rival factions. Fano militants have achieved significant military gains against government forces on several fronts in the past year. The rebellion began in mid-2023 when the Federal Government attempted to disarm Amhara regional special forces and the loosely organized militia which had aided the Federal Government in the 2020-2022 war with the Tigrayan forces.
In recent months, however, Fano rebels have faced immense military pressure from the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF), losing major cities and being confined to smaller towns and rural areas. Despite these military setbacks, they have still succeeded in ambushing ENDF forces and obstructing their movements.
Primarily supported by the ethnic Amhara diaspora, the informally organized Fano militants have gradually entered into resource and power competitions. Attempts to unify Fano factions under a unified political and military leadership have repeatedly failed. A recent election among the factions, however, led to the election of Eskinder Nega, an Addis Ababa-born former journalist and human rights activist, as the leader of a unified Fano command. However, several Fano factions rejected his election.
Eskinder, who had spent several years in prison during the previous government, later formed an Addis Ababa-based opposition political party before joining the Fano armed struggle. He is the winner of prestigious international human rights and press freedom awards.
The main opponent of Eskinder is Zemene Kassie, a prominent leader of the Fano faction in the Gojjam zone. Zemene is a former member of the now-defunct Ginbot 7 rebel group (2008-2019) based in neighboring Eritrea.
Beyond personal matters, the main contentious issue among the factions is the future of the armed struggle. One group aims to liberate the whole country from the Prosperity Party-led government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, while the other seeks to limit the struggle to defending the ethnic Amhara causes, including protecting ethnic Amharas from ethnically-targeted violence. This political difference might, however, conceal individual power ambitions and competition for resources.
Both Zemene and Eskinder have significant support bases, and the ongoing disagreement is likely to lead to further factional hostility and infighting. Financial support from the diaspora may dwindle, while their respective media and propaganda channels have turned to attacking each other. Other Fano factions from other parts of the Amhara region will have to choose sides or stay away from the two notable factions.
Consequently, the Federal Government is likely to exploit these divisions. This emerging fragmentation presents an opportunity for government forces, who have struggled to defeat the grassroots and informally organized Fano rebels. However, security and stability cannot be guaranteed without a political solution.
A more fragmented Fano has the potential to give rise to criminal elements and worsen civilian suffering. Even though, there is still a possibility that either of the two contenders rally the other Fano factions behind them and create a broad unified leadership.
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