MEMO: TPLF dragging feet on merger with ruling Prosperity Party
A major internal political realignment has been underway in Ethiopia since the first week of April.
The hallmark has been the Tigray forces retaking the disputed Raya Alamata territory, in a move that was in line with the Pretoria Peace agreement. Read Wazema April 1 MEMO for the background information.
Tigray forces most likely will target another disputed territory, Wolkiet Tegede, on the western side of the border. Their latest advancement was provoking hostility between them and the Amhara forces and there was widespread fear of a new conflict. Amhara regional government issued a stern warning and demanded the withdrawal of the Tigray forces. In the northern front, the Tigray forces were demanding the withdrawal of the Eritreans from another disputed territory, which the latter were demanding, in line with the Algiers agreement. Tension has remained high in the area in the past few weeks.
As the confrontation intensifies, a discussion was ongoing between the former powerful Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party. Leaders from the two entities met in Mekele and Addis Ababa on April 2 and 15, respectively, to consider a possible merger.
TPLF has been demanding an amendment to the Prosperity Party law on ethnic federal regions, whose party representation is based on the size of their constituent populations. According to the bylaw, the central committee and the executive are also based on the population sizes.
The Prosperity Party’s predecessor, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), was a coalition of four parties with equal representation in the central committee and the executive. TPLF was a powerful member of EPRDF despite representing a minority Tigray community.
Formed in 2019, the Prosperity Party dissolved the EPRDF coalition and created a unified party structure, which included representation for minorities. However, the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) opposed this unification, eventually boycotting the party. This disagreement escalated into a two-year bloody conflict.
The latest TPLF and Prosperity Party negotiations were progressing well, except for the differences on representation, according to Wazema sources. Nevertheless, joining the Prosperity Party or not, will be critical to TPLF’s survival and relevance.
Since its creation in 1972, TPLF has been an ideologically separatist group that promotes ethnic autonomy. The party dominated the 1995 Ethiopian constitution that recognised ethnic self-rule, including the right to secession for any community.
The Prosperity Party, on other hand, has a centralised structure, with each of its regional offices working under a chairman. The party, whose current chairman is PM Abiy, insists on its commitment to the ethnic self-rule principles.
Abandoning TPLF’s long time ideological foundation could hurt its support base and lead to internal split. There was a strong resentment against the TPLF leaders due to the heavy human and economic cost of the 2020-2022 war with the Ethiopia Federal government.
As a short term strategy, joining the Prosperity Party would offer TPLF a security guarantee and better economic prospects for the Tigrayans.
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